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Which step of your funnel can fund a verdict?

A funnel is not a set of numbers, it is a queue of units you could be judged on. Every consecutive pair in it — visits→signups, signups→activations, activations→paid — is a unit you can test, and each unit has its own floor: the events a strict two-arm test needs before a difference means anything. This tool takes the counted events of your funnel per month and reports, for each pair, the floor, the events each arm actually sees in a month, and how many months a verdict takes.

Your funnel, in events per month

Up to four steps, in order. A step with a zero count is simply skipped, so a three-step funnel is fine. The pairs are what get judged; the last step is where money lives and has no next pair.

What counts as worth detecting

Which unit is readable?

Result

How to read the answer

The floor assumes a 50/50 split, so each arm gets half of the earlier step's monthly volume. The months number is therefore not a prediction about how fast the test converts — it is how long the funnel takes to produce the events the verdict needs. Three things the output refuses to hide:

• the earliest step reads soonest and owns the least — it is usually the number already in the dashboard;
• the money step has no next pair, so money always reads one step behind whatever unit you chose;
• if nothing in the funnel is readable inside your horizon, the honest output is a progress report, not a test.

The arithmetic is a statistics floor, not a forecast: at 80% power and alpha 0.05, a strict two-proportion comparison needs the sample size the floor formula gives. Compare with the same computation in a terminal: npx marketing-mindset unit --steps visits:12000,signups:900,activations:270,paid:40. Longer version of the argument, for developer tools where the signup is the wrong unit: marketing engineer for devtools.

Written by Axel Freeman — marketing engineer. Free to use, no email required; the packages behind the method are public on the offer page ($900 Sprint, $1,900/month Engine, $2,900 Full Build) and the tools list is at /tools/.

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Also: which of your channels can actually fund a verdict — floor per arm, months to verdict, the cost of one full two-arm test and the channel to run first at your volume.